Most startups die

Show me a startup you're investing in, and

I'll tell you why it will not work

Logical, legit, believable reasons, and

I could be right 10 out of 10 times

If you are not a good investor

I could be right 9 out of 10 times

If you are a good investor

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But

That doesn't matter much

Because the one time that I will not be right

You can make 10x, 100x, or even higher

On your initial investment

‍

Because

In startup investing

The downside is limited

To the amount invested, and

The upside is relatively uncapped

It’s not intuitive to account for power law

All this makes it easy to diss startups

And a lot of startups deserve that

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But

There is money to be made, and

Those who appreciate power law, and

Those who understand this asset class

Those who build a portfolio

Do very well for themselves

But pessimists sound intelligent

Because most startups die